Batten Down the Hatches
The global economy is weakening fast, and many countries may already be in recession. Add to this the pressures placed on businesses and consumers from multiple crises – inflation, supply chain chaos, baby formula, energy prices, diesel shortage, food shortages, COVID in China, and the risk of the Ukraine War expanding. Expect housing prices to begin to fall over the summer, while equities and alternative assets will continue to face headwinds for the foreseeable future.
In many ways, the recession of 2022 will be worse than the economic disruption caused by COVID in 2020. While the knock-on effects of the pandemic will continue to reverberate. The underlying weakness in the broader economy is due to decades of disinvestment (especially in the USA) and the compound failures of policymakers and regulators.
THE 375 PARK COVID MODEL FORECASTS ~ 90MM CASES AND A cCFR OF 1.2% IN THE U.S. BY JULY ’22