Expect an Economic Slowdown in 2022
Multiple headwinds are already starting to impact the real economy and the markets, and as the year comes to an end, evidence that the post-COVID recovery is running out of steam is becoming difficult to ignore. However, central bank interference in the markets for the last several years may limit options in the future. Add to this little urgency on the part of corporations to begin the process of rebalancing supply chains and growing consumer debt, and the forecast for the year ahead is worrying.
THE 375 PARK COVID MODEL CURRENTLY FORECASTS > 76MM CASES AND A cCFR if 1.6% IN THE U.S. BY JULY ’22. HOWEVER, INITIAL DATA WOULD INDICATE THAT THE EMERGENCE OF THE O-VARIANT MAY SKEW THE MODEL’S ACCURACY. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE THE FINAL WAVE OF THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC AS THE SITUATION SHIFTS TO ENDEMIC IN MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD, INCLUDING THE USA.