While investors view the labor reports as evidence that the Fed will remain patient, persistent inflation pressures may force the central bank to act.
In our view, the lack of wage growth points to employers betting that current labor shortages are temporary – especially as the impact of stimulus begins to fade. Further complicating forecasts is that historic levels of market intervention, coupled with rapidly changing market dynamics, are making it harder to predict what will come next.
Based on where we stand today, it would appear the economy is past the worst of the recession. However, it is unclear whether the recovery will gain pace or start to lose steam.
THE 375 PARK COVID MODEL CURRENTLY FORECASTS ~ 42 MM CASES AND A cCFR if 1.8% IN THE U.S. BY THE END OF ’21.
HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE AS VACCINATION, AND WARM WEATHER HAS PUSHED THE 30D MA OF CONFIRMED CASES BELOW TO THE 20,000 MARK.
