The sharp rise in long-term rates has muted growth in the broader market, and at this point, the S&P 500 is up <5% YTD. Historically the steepening yield curve is a positive signal; however, it is difficult to measure the impact of simultaneous monetary and fiscal stimulus. A bias towards near-term growth may help address other pandemic-related economic issues, though it remains unclear how tightening will impact growth. Given that economic indicators remain tied to stimulus rather than market forces, the outlook, while improving, remains bearish.
THE 375 PARK COVID MODEL CURRENTLY FORECASTS ~ 39 MM CASES AND A cCFR of 1.4% IN THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE JUNE ’21. AT THIS RATE, WE COULD SEE MANY ASPECTS OF DAILY LIFE RETURNING TO PRE-PANDEMIC NORMS BY EARLY-MAY.
