With 48 days until the U.S. election, the race for the White House has moved decidedly favor of the Republican candidate in the past two weeks, with our model giving them a nearly 60% chance of winning at this point – though this is likely to change.
Florida appears to be moving towards the GOP as our model indicates undecided voters will break towards the incumbent. While Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain toss-ups, Nevada and North Carolina are currently leaning towards the Republicans.
In terms of the markets, the election is unlikely to have a significant impact on monetary policy and asset prices in the near term as the Federal Reserve is likely to continue asset purchases regardless of the winner.
Fiscal packages are likely to remain stalled until after the election at the earliest.
Cover Photo: Sonoma Index-Tribune
