‘The Winter of Our Discontent’
In many ways, COVID continues to dominate the economic outlook. This is especially true as the U.S. passes through the heart of winter. While there is hope that the worst of the Omicron wave may give by early-to-mid February, this does not mean that the stalled economic recovery will gain steam going into the spring. The combination of inflation, supply chain woes, political division leading to regulatory uncertainty, and other market imbalances are expected to be a drag on growth for much of the year ahead.
THE 375 PARK COVID MODEL CURRENTLY FORECASTS > 96MM CASES (+20MM FROM DECEMBER ‘21) AND A cCFR if 1.1% (- 0.5% FROM DECEMBER ’21) IN THE U.S. BY JULY ’22. WHILE THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT COVID WILL SHIFT FROM A PANDEMIC TO ENDEMIC DURING THE YEAR, THE POSSIBILITY OF A VARIANT WITH THE WORST CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DELTA AND THE OMICRON VARIANTS REMAINS.