Too Close for Comfort
With five days until the U.S. election, the average of state polls indicate the race has tightened, while the betting markets lean towards a Democrat win.
While this is the more likely outcome, the Republican position has improved in recent days, and the party now has a roughly 45 IN 100 CHANCE OF WINNING.
However, UNKNOWNS ABOUND, and the MAP COULD SHIFT IN EITHER DIRECTION in the coming days, though the current prediction indicates the DEMOCRATS ARE UNLIKELY TO GAIN CONTROL OF THE SENATE.
In terms of the markets, the election is unlikely to have a significant impact on monetary policy and asset prices in the near term as the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its interventions regardless of the winner.
At this point, the most significant risk is a delayed or disputed result in which a political crisis could impact the economy.