Waiting for an October Surprise
With 33 days until the U.S. election, the race for the White House has shifted significantly in the past two weeks, with our model giving the incumbent less than 35 in 100 chance of winning.
Florida appears to be moving towards the GOP as our model indicates undecided voters will break towards the incumbent. In contrast, Arizona and many states in the Midwest have moved towards the challenger in recent weeks.
In terms of the markets, the election is unlikely to have a significant impact on monetary policy and asset prices in the near term as the Federal Reserve is likely to continue asset purchases regardless of the winner.
However, a fiscal lifeline from Congress is unlikely until after the election at the earliest, though an Executive Order addressing this issue could shift the balance.
Cover Photo: ABC News