When is a Recovery not a Recovery?
From problems in China (non-performing loans & a clampdown on technology companies) to inflation, slowing employment growth, and persistent supply chain issues, the broader economy appears to be heading towards months of sluggish growth that will leave many sectors on the outside looking in.
In our view, the lack of wage growth points to employers betting that current labor shortages are temporary – especially as the impact of stimulus begins to fade. While the situation should start to correct itself going into Q4, the damage might already have been done as complications from inflation, supply chain disruptions, COVID, and a possible correction in China have the potential to end the recovery before it even gets started.
THE 375 PARK COVID MODEL CURRENTLY FORECASTS ~ 40 MM CASES AND A cCFR if 1.8% IN THE U.S. BY THE END OF ’21. HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE AS MODELS LACK SUFFICIENT DATA AT THIS POINT TO FORECAST THE IMPACT OF PREVAILING VARIANTS SUCH AS Γ, Δ, & Λ GAIN A FOOTHOLD IN THE U.S.